Since the early 1900’s office buildings have been a staple of corporate America. 什么开始是适度的结构, a few stories tall and accommodating only a limited number of employees, has evolved into towering skyscrapers dominating the skylines of major U.S. 城市里住着成千上万的工人. Over the decades cities have grown around office buildings and have benefited from the taxes they brought in. 然而, this decades old image of the office building is changing as vacancies remain high, 混合工作正在成为新常态. In turn, landlords have been seeking out creative ways to pivot their investments into new profit.
According to Moody’s Analytics, the office vacancy rate hit an all-time high of 19.6%，而大流行前的平均比率为16%.8%. As vacancies continue to rise because fewer people are working in the office full-time, 这些建筑的价值下降了. 到2025年底， $1.5 trillion worth of commercial office building debt will be up for refinancing. Landlords are now exploring innovative ways to adapt their investments to changing trends, 在不确定性中迎来了一波乐观情绪.
"As more commercial real estate loans come due for refinancing some banks will try to implement what many call "Pretend and Extend". Where lenders will rework loans to extend them for another year or two in hopes that rates come down and the borrower can improve occupancy, 从而增加财产价值. Banks (especially smaller regional banks with large CRE loan balances) would prefer to try and extend these loans so they don't have to write off the loan losses. The question is whether the borrowers even have an appetite to continuing incurring losses on their properties and rather just hand the keys back and be rid of it."
哪些办公楼可以改造?
As vacancies persist and the value of office buildings fluctuates, landlords are looking for viable alternatives to traditional office space. One promising avenue is the conversion of these empty spaces into residential units, 解决我国紧迫的住房短缺问题. While it’s true that not all office buildings are immediately suited for residential conversion, 大约15% 的商业办公楼.S. 城市有望成功适应居住365买球, particularly those with smaller footprints and better layouts conducive to apartments. 这一潜力可能产生近172个,000套新公寓, a significant boost to housing inventory and a welcome relief for the housing market.
KGO的创新总监 & Mathew Xavier参加了2月份的纽约Build Expo, where many of the panel discussions touched on this important topic.
"Repositioning office buildings from commercial to residential or "resi-mercial" will help to activate and occupy commercial office buildings that are hit with the most vacancy. The reposition maintains the asset without losing the existing air rights in place."
The key obstacle for repurposing office space to residential use is making sure the return on investment is attractive enough for developers to pursue the renovations. 为此目的, the Department of Transportation has recently announced $35 billion in loans available to developers at 低于市场利率 以帮助激励商业住宅转换. Commercial to residential conversions happened all the time before Covid, now it looks to accelerate as developers and landlords embrace the opportunity to reimagine empty office spaces.
了解商业建筑类别
Not all segments of the commercial real estate market are experiencing downturns. 甲类建筑物, 拥有现代化的布局和丰富的设施, 看到需求增加, 在不断变化的365买球中展示韧性. 作为背景, commercial buildings are generally broken down into three categories of Class A, B, 和C. 甲类建筑物 are roughly three years old or less and have an abundance of amenities and any repairs are done immediately. 这些建筑的投资回报率是三种建筑中最高的. Class B buildings tend to be up to 10-15 years old and only have a handful of amenities compared to Class A. They also tend to take a little longer to address any needed repairs, 因此他们的投资回报率低于A类. Lastly, Class C tends to be the oldest, needing the most updates. These have the lowest ROI and are not profitable investments if upgrades are not made.
A类建筑一直很抢手, but it appears that in a new world of hybrid work they are able to draw more people into the office due to the modern layouts and expansive list of amenities. 在CNBC的一篇文章中， they even mention how there may be a shortage of 甲类建筑物 in the coming years. Just as certain malls adapted to survive the rise of e-commerce by offering unique experiences, 甲类建筑物 are thriving by providing top-notch amenities and fostering a desirable work environment. 纽约市的One Vanderbilt365买球网就是一个很好的例子. 它直接通往中央车站, 拥有世界一流的餐厅, 为租户提供酒店式的社交俱乐部吗, 室外露台, 并获得LEED和WELLNESS认证. These amenities help draw in tenants and entice workers to leave their homes and come into the office.
Addressing the high vacancy rates of commercial office buildings requires a multifaceted approach. 适用于改建为住宅的旧建筑物, incentives and support from the government are crucial in facilitating the transition. 与此同时, 用于B类和C类性能, renovation and redevelopment into mixed-use spaces offer a path to revitalization, 用新的设施和体验吸引租户回来.
办公空间的未来是光明的, 具有灵活性的特点, 创新, 重新关注人类体验. 不再仅仅是工作结构, office buildings are evolving into dynamic environments that cater to the diverse needs of tenants and employees alike. 当我们拥抱这个变革的时代, we usher in a new chapter of optimism and possibility in the world of commercial real estate.